The Future of AI · Domain
Industry by Industry
What breaks, what survives, and what gets built — accounting, legal, healthcare, insurance, education, logistics, trades.
Industry by Industry — scoreboard
Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.
| Forecaster | Calls | Resolved | Hit | Miss | Partial | Avg. confidence | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRED | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22% | — |
| Matt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30% | — |
Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.