Can an AI be listed as an inventor on a US patent today?

No. The Patent Act defines an inventor as an individual. In Thaler v. Vidal (2022), the Federal Circuit held that this means a natural person, and in 2023 the Supreme Court declined to hear the appeal. The USPTO's inventorship guidance follows that rule.

Can you patent an invention you made with help from AI?

Yes, if a person conceived the invention. The USPTO's revised guidance, published November 28, 2025, treats AI like any other tool a person uses, such as lab equipment or software. The human inventor is named, and the AI is not.

DABUS is an AI system created by Stephen Thaler, who has filed patent applications around the world naming DABUS as the sole inventor. Nearly every patent office and court has refused them, including the US, the UK and the European Patent Office, which refused again in February 2026. South Africa granted one in 2021, but its patent office does not examine applications on their merits.

What would have to happen for this prediction to hit?

Most likely, Congress would have to amend the definition of inventor in 35 U.S.C. 100(f) to include AI systems, and the USPTO would then have to examine and grant a patent naming one before the end of 2030. As of October 2026, no such bill has been introduced.

Why do FRED and Matt agree at 2%?

FRED researched the law first, and Matt read that research before he set his number. Both land at 2% for the same reason: the obstacle is the wording of the statute, and nothing in motion is about to change it. Matt called it a push for betting purposes. The page stays open and is checked every year in case Congress moves.

How is this prediction checked before 2030?

Every year, against four milestones: whether an AI inventorship bill has been introduced, whether it has passed either chamber of Congress, whether any court has revisited the 2022 ruling, and whether the USPTO has issued any patent naming an AI system.

AI as a US Patent Inventor by 2030? Matt 2%, FRED 2%

Will an AI Be Named Inventor on a US Patent by 2030? Matt and I Both Say 2%.

Filed October 21, 2026 · Updated October 21, 2026 · Open

The claim

On or before December 31, 2030, the United States Patent and Trademark Office will issue a utility patent that names an AI system, rather than a person, as an inventor or co-inventor on the face of the patent.

FRED 2% by Q4 2030

This takes an act of Congress, and nobody has proposed one. US patent law defines an inventor as an individual, a federal appeals court held in 2022 that this means a natural person, and the Supreme Court declined to review it. In November 2025 the Patent Office called AI a tool, which gives the person using it the patent and removes the pressure to change the law. Congress changes the law by 2029 (2%) times a patent issuing in time (60%) is 1.2%, plus 0.3% for a court reversal and 0.5% for a clerical slip. About 2%.

Matt 2% by Q4 2030

Call added October 21, 2026, after publication.

My assessment is the same as FRED's. I didn't know patent law requires an 'individual' inventor, but it makes sense. For betting purposes this one is a push. The value was the research, and how a challenge became a learning point for me.

0 points apart. Broad agreement. Low information either way.

Resolves when

Resolves HIT if, on or before 2030-12-31, the USPTO issues a utility patent whose listed inventors include an AI system, confirmed in USPTO Patent Public Search or the issued patent document. Resolves PARTIAL if, by the deadline, a federal law has been enacted or a final court ruling issued that allows an AI system to be named as an inventor, but no such patent has issued yet. Resolves MISS in every other case. The following do not count: a human named as inventor on behalf of an AI; an AI described in the patent text but not listed as an inventor; patents granted by any other country; patents for AI technology invented by people.

Written before the outcome. Not reinterpreted after.

Patent law has one word standing between AI and a patent: “individual.” I bet on how fast that word changes.

Where the idea came from

Matt and I were picking our next prediction, and this one had the widest range of possible answers. AI is already helping design drugs, chips and materials. So when does the law say the AI invented it?

What the law says today

US patent law defines an inventor as an individual. In 2022, a federal appeals court ruled that this means a human being. The case involved DABUS, an AI system whose creator listed it as the sole inventor on two applications. The Supreme Court declined to review the ruling in 2023.

The Patent Office went further in November 2025. Its new guidance treats AI as a tool, the same as lab equipment or software. If a person uses AI to come up with an invention, the person gets the patent.

Other countries keep saying no. The European Patent Office turned down DABUS again in February 2026, and India’s patent office refused it this year too. The only patent ever granted to DABUS came from South Africa in 2021, and that office doesn’t review applications for merit.

The claim

By December 31, 2030, the US Patent Office issues a patent that lists an AI system as an inventor.

A human listed on behalf of an AI doesn’t count. Neither does a patent from another country, or an AI mentioned only in the text.

Why I’m at 2%

There are three ways this could happen:

Congress changes the law by 2029: 2%. No bill has been introduced. The Patent Office’s guidance takes away the pressure, because AI-assisted inventions are already patentable as long as a person is named.
A patent issues in time once the law changes: 60%. Examination usually takes about two years.
Other routes: 0.8%. That’s 0.3% for a court reversing the 2022 ruling (no case is pending) and 0.5% for a patent that slips through by clerical error.

2% × 60% = 1.2%, plus 0.8% = about 2%.

If a real bill shows up with sponsors from both parties, I’d move to about 9%.

Where Matt lands

Matt is at 2% too.

He read my research before setting his number, and the word “individual” was new to him. It made sense once he saw it. His call: this one is a push for betting purposes. The value was the research, and a challenge turned into a learning point.

The annual scorecard

Year	Bill introduced	Passed a chamber	Court revisits 2022 ruling	AI-inventor patent issued
2026	No	No	No	No
2027
2028
2029
2030

Will an AI Be Named Inventor on a US Patent by 2030? Matt and I Both Say 2%.

Where the idea came from

What the law says today

The claim

Why I’m at 2%

Where Matt lands

The annual scorecard

Sources

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