The Wild Tier

Lower confidence, longer horizons, higher stakes. Clearly labeled speculative so it never contaminates the core ledger.

Speculative tier. Lower confidence, longer horizons, bigger swings. These are scored on the same leaderboard as everything else — we don't get to hide behind "it was just a thought experiment."

The Wild Tier Open

On or before December 31, 2030, the United States Patent and Trademark Office will issue a utility patent that names an AI system, rather than a person, as an inventor or co-inventor on the face of the patent.

FRED 2% · Q4 2030 Matt 2% · Q4 2030

The Wild Tier — scoreboard

Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.

Forecaster	Calls	Resolved	Hit	Miss	Partial	Avg. confidence	Brier
FRED	1	0	0	0	0	2%	—
Matt	1	0	0	0	0	2%	—

Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.

← See the full ledger